Disclaimer: This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I own shares of Adore Beauty (ASX:ABY).

Adore Beauty has 10x potential.

Many public market investors don’t have the audacity or time horizon to search for ten-baggers. It’s hard to connect the dots looking forward. But here’s an illustrative blueprint:

  • 10+ year outlook
  • 25%+ potential revenue CAGR
  • Fair revenue purchase multiple assuming steady-state margins

It takes a special company to sustain elevated growth rates for a decade. Looking back, the two characteristics many…


The Bifurcation Economy (h/t)

We’re living in the Upside Down.

2020 has been a year of superlatives and increasing uncertainty. The worst public health crisis in over 100 years. The highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. An estimated budget deficit approaching $4 trillion. Rising income inequality. Systemic racism and police brutality sparking nationwide protests and riots. Spiking gun sales. An upcoming, divisive election.

And yet, the stock market has responded with a shrug. After a steep one month sell-off from late February to late March, the indices have come roaring back. …


Disclaimer: This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I own shares of Stitch Fix (NasdaqGS:SFIX).

I published a write-up on Stitch Fix last month, which can be found here. Sharing ideas invites feedback and criticism. It helps me understand opposing viewpoints and forces me to challenge strongly held opinions. Over the past few weeks, I’ve heard from many skeptics, some short sellers, and a couple of investors who are also long. …


Source: Stitch Fix Investor Presentation — June 2019

Disclaimer: This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I own shares of Stitch Fix (NasdaqGS:SFIX).

Overview

Stitch Fix is an innovative online apparel retailer. By combining data science and human judgement, they have reinvented the shopping experience and democratized personal styling. Unlike other ecommerce sites that put the burden of search on consumers, Stitch Fix is a recommendation engine focused on getting relevant merchandise in front of clients. The value proposition is rooted in deep personalization, curation, and discovery.

To start…


Disclaimer: The content below is for educational and entertainment purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I own shares of The Westaim Corporation (TSXV:WED).

Summary

There have been several positive developments related to Westaim since my initial write-up roughly two months ago. The stock is up ~18% during this period but continues to trade below my estimate of intrinsic value. Here is a summary of the recent progress:

  • Westaim issued a press release stating they “may consider opportunities to enhance the growth and value of HIIG” due to…


Disclaimer: The content below is for educational and entertainment purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I own shares of The Westaim Corporation (TSXV:WED).

Summary Thesis

The Westaim Corporation (TSXV:WED) is a Canadian-listed holding company that controls two subsidiaries, a specialty property and casualty insurer called Houston International Insurance Group (HIIG) and a credit-focused alternative asset manager called the Arena Group. Management has an impressive track record and relies on an opportunistic, value investing strategy to maximize intrinsic value per share over the long-term (See Exhibit A: Investment…


Disclaimer: The content below is for educational and entertainment purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I own shares of Owens Realty Mortgage (NYSEAMERICAN:ORM)

The power of incentives

I initially wrote up my thesis for Owens Realty Mortgage (ORM) in October 2016 (link here). Despite sizable real estate sales that led to growth in book value, the stock has declined ~13% after adjusting for dividends. Even more telling, the price to book value multiple declined from ~0.85x to ~0.65x.

It has been a frustrating investment and a constant reminder of the perils…


Source: Kodak Website — PROSPER Imprinting System

Disclaimer: The content below is for educational and entertainment purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I own shares of Eastman Kodak (NYSE:KODK).

Summary Thesis

Kodak emerged from bankruptcy protection in late 2013 and is currently an unloved and underfollowed stock. Execution disappointments, macro headwinds, and a very small free float have converged to cause an over-correction in the stock price. I believe fair value is over 3x higher than the current price and the leadership team is incentivized to extract this value.

Background

Eastman Kodak is a…


Disclaimer: The content below is for educational and entertainment purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I own shares of Maui Land & Pineapple (NYSE:MLP).

I initially outlined my thesis for Maui Land & Pineapple about nine months ago (link here). The stock is up over 40% but I think the risk-reward trade-off may be even more compelling today. The story continues to play out and the company made significantly more progress in 2016 than I anticipated.

In their Q4 earnings release and subsequent 10K released last week…


Source: Lawson Products Corporate Brochure

Disclaimer: The content below is for educational and entertainment purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I own shares of Lawson Products (NASDAQ:LAWS).

Summary

Lawson Products (NASDAQ:LAWS) is a niche industrial distributor of maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) supplies. The business model is compelling and management is executing well in a difficult environment. Lawson is currently under-earning due to cyclical softness and growth investments obscuring steady-state earnings potential. …

Stephen Vafier

Investor

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store